Macroeconomic forecast

Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Section

The basic mission of the Section is to provide operational information to the management of the Ministry, the Government, the Parliament, the Presidency about the social-economic developments of the Republic of Moldova. The forecasts made contribute to decision-making and the preparation of forecasts of the main medium-term macroeconomic indicators, with a view to identifying the country’s development prospects and preparing the Medium-Term Budget Framework and the State Budget Law.

In accordance with its tasks, the Section shall perform the following basic functions and duties:

a) in the field of monitoring, analysis and evaluation of the social and economic situation of the country:

analysis of the evolution of macroeconomic indicators, such as: gross domestic product by categories of resources and uses, indicators of the System of National Accounts, consumer price index, budget revenue and expenditure, current account, capital and financial account of the balance of payments, monetary and foreign exchange indicators, industrial production, agricultural production, investment and other indicators characterising the social and economic development of the country;
preparation of reports and analytical information on the social-economic situation and their publication on the Ministry’s website for the information of the Ministry’s management, the Government, the Presidency, the Parliament and other interested institutions;
preparation of analytical information needed in cooperation with international bodies;
monitoring and developing the information databases needed to carry out systematic analysis of the state of the national economy.

b) in the field of social and economic development forecasting:

elaboration of forecasts of the main medium-term macroeconomic indicators (consumer price index and exchange rate of the national currency – in collaboration with the National Bank of Moldova) and their publication on the Ministry’s website;
updating macroeconomic estimates for the current year and preparing the preliminary medium-term forecast; publishing it on the Ministry’s website and submitting it to the Ministry of Finance for the preparation of the Medium-Term Budget Framework and the State Budget Law;
improving the methodology for the elaboration of socio-economic development forecasts, including the econometric modelling process for macroeconomic forecasting;
coordinating forecasts of the main macroeconomic indicators with experts from international bodies.